Brodie Smith ($332, 500, DEF).
A real interesting selection is Brodie Smith. This to me is not only a bargain type pick but a genuine ‘mid-price’ pick who we could see finally taking that average to over 100. Although when I say that I believe it is a lot more unlikely than it is likely. Hesitant to label Brodie as a ‘fallen premo’ given he has only ever averaged over 90 once in his career however he threatens to do so most years.
Let’s firstly look at the positives. Smith runs and kicks long and is generally accurate by foot. We all know that a big part of SuperCoach scoring system includes metres gained, rebounds from 50 and effective kicks. Particularly long kicks. Not to mention score involvements particularly involvements that commence from defensive 50 – wing. Over his last 5 season Smith has floated between that 18-23 possession a game mark and I think the key to seeing him go the next level and genuinely become a ‘premium pick’ we would need to see him raise that average to 26-28. I can’t see that happening so let’s rule that out. However lets think about this from a different perspective. The new Kick-In rule. In a day and age where ‘territory’ is considered one of the trendy stats to win in a game of football, I think we will definitely see players who can kick the ball 55-60m and take advantage with a short burst of speed to clear the zones. Brodie Smith I think will take full advantage of this new-year.
If we think about this pick a little differently and probably accept that Smith is not a ‘premium’ selection than the pick seems to be a little more logical. Smith is genuinely underpriced (priced at an average of 61). Smith has only ever averaged below 70 on 2 occasions (his first two of his career) and hasn’t averaged under 75 in his last 6 seasons. The reality is, is at some point you will have yo use a trade to upgrade Smith however, this certainly is a bargain buy given his history of averages and his current price. At a minimum Smith should average you 100 in the first part of the season and probably make you 100K. Be wary when selecting Smith given his soft tissue history and now his significant knee injury in the past year, but also be mindful of how many ‘mid-priced’ players you are selecting because there is such a thing as to many!
I would not be surprised at all to see the team who has taken out the 50K have Smith in their starting line up because if injury does not strike and he can churn out an 80+ average than this pick is certainly a no brainer. However the unfortunate thing is we don’t get to speak to Captain Hindsight for probably another three months. So will you take the risk?
2011 Average: 50 from 14 Games
2012 Average: 65 from 19 Games
2013 Average: 75.3 from 13 Games
2014 Average: 93.5 from 22 Games
2015 Average: 76.2 from 19 Games
2016 Average: 75.3 from 21 Games
2017 Average: 82.2 from 22 Games
2018 Average: 87.5 from 2 Games.
2019 Predicted Average: 86 from 20 Games